Five Questions: No. 14 Tennessee vs. No. 24 NC State (2024)

WILL TENNESSEE'S NICO IAMALEAVA MEET THE MOMENT?

Football is the ultimate team sport that requires nearly all 11 people on the field on a given play to do their jobs. That doesn't mean is everyone is the same. Everyone matters, but some matter more than others. Quarterback stands atop the pyramid for a reason. An elite quarterback with absolutely nothing around him won't work, but an elite quarterback with anything around him can be and sometimes is more important than an average quarterback with elite talent around him. Quarterback is the great equalizer or separator, depending on the situation.

If Nico Iamaleava is already an elite quarterback, or at least puts in an elite performance in this game, Tennessee won't lose. Full stop. It won't lose. Iamaleava has what looks like a better team around him than Grayson McCall has around him at NC State, and he's physically capable of doing things McCall can't, so if both of those players throw their best fastball, the Vols will win. It's never quite as simple as that, but if you want to try to make it simple, that's the most logical elevator pitch.

Tennessee didn't get an easy schedule this season, but it got a smoother one than it's gotten in a while, and there are advantages built into the layout. Before Iamaleava heads to Norman to play a ranked Oklahoma team in the first true road start of his career, he gets to quarterback the Vols in a neutral-site game against a ranked NC State team that looks good, but not quite as good as Oklahoma. And as daunting as the trip to Georgia looks later in the season, Iamaleava will be able to learn from anything good, bad or ugly that happens at Oklahoma, and at Arkansas after that.

Getting a chance to gradually ramp up a schedule is a luxury dumped onto the lap of a Tennessee team breaking in a young starting quarterback. This is the next step in that process. Iamaleava can't do this by himself, but if he plays the way he's capable of playing, the Vols win this game. No pressure, kid, right?

WILL TENNESSEE GET GRAYSON McCALL OFF PLATFORM AND OFF THE SPOT?

Grayson McCall is a good football player. He's always been a good football player, and he long ago that proved that he's at least a really, really good college quarterback. No one at any level of college football earns 91 career touchdown passes and 15 career interceptions by accident. Those are numbers that command respect. Between the 2022-22 seasons at Coastal Carolina, McCall tossed 77 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. So, yeah, he's good. Really good.

McCall isn't an elite prospect, though. He doesn't have a powerful arm. He's really smart, and his ball placement is usually really good, but there are some throws you don't want to ask him to make against a talented defense, because he's not capable of putting enough zip on the ball to avoid danger. And while he's slippery and an above-average runner for his position, he's not someone who looks likely to run away from a majority of the players in Tennessee's two-deep.

He's 100 percent capable of leading his team to a win in any game. He's a player you have to respect. But when you look at the matchups in this game, he's a player Tennessee at least has the ability to bother.

NC State is better at pass protecting than run blocking, and it's got lots of experience up front, but Tennessee's defensive line is just better on paper. That guarantees the Vols nothing, but it means they should win that battle up front. They should move the line of scrimmage. They should collapse the pocket. They should keep McCall from consistently dropping back deep, setting his feet and winding up the way he must to get the ball downfield.

Teams are going to respect this Tennessee defensive line. They have on choice. If you consistently play this front straight up with anything less than an elite offensive line, you're going to pay for it. You have to get rid of the ball quickly. You have to move the pocket. You have to cut and chip pass rushers on the edge. You have to wrong-foot them. You have to pick your spots and be unpredictable.

If Tennessee consistently flushes McCall out of the pocket, there's a chance the Vols will pay for that at least a couple of times. He's quick and clever enough to make some plays in those situations. But if you do that consistently, and you do it with the talent Tennessee has up front, you should win more battles than you lose.

Take away the run, make NC State one-dimensional, and then tee off on McCall. On two. Ready … break.

WILL TENNESSEE CONTAIN KC CONCEPCION OR LET NO ONE ELSE DO DAMAGE?

NC State has a handful of skill position players on offense capable of making you hurt. One of them —tight end Justin Joly —gave Tennessee fits last season despite his then-UConn Huskies getting blown out of Neyland Stadium. Some of the receivers and backs —including a couple of transfers from major programs —look capable of making plays against good defenses, too.

Only one of them looks truly scary, tough.

Sophom*ore receiver Kevin "KC" Concepcion is an outstanding football. The 5-foot-11, 187-pound North Carolina native and former high school teammate of Tennessee star edge James Pearce Jr. absolutely looks like one of the most exciting prospects in college football on film. He can get out and run in space, and everyone knows that, but his versatility and his toughness are the things that stood out more to me.

NC State does a lot of things in order to force the ball into Concepcion's hands, and you can see why. He's elusive, he's quick and he's deceptively strong. When you hand him the ball, he looks like a running back. When you throw him the ball, he looks like a wide receiver. He can run good routes to the sticks and make catches in traffic on third down, and while he doesn't consistently play with as much pure speed as his reputations suggests, he absolutely can take the top off a defense.

Simply put, Concepcion is a problem. You have to know where he is on every snap. NC State's supporting cast is too solid to ignore, but No. 10 is the special one. The Wolfpack do everything imaginable to get him the ball for a reason. That's how talented he is, and that's how difficult opponents often try to make it for him to get the ball.

I don't pretend to know how Tennessee will defend NC State, but generally there are two ways to look at it. You can contain Concepcion, or you can let Concepcion go bonkers but don't let anyone else do anything. If Concepcion goes nuclear and other members of the Wolfpack are doing serious damage, the Vols will either win a shootout or lose the game. That's the path of most resistance, and the path Tennessee must avoid.

WILL TENNESSEE AVOID LOSING THE TURNOVER BATTLE?

Tennessee doesn't necessarily need to win the turnover margin in this game.

If the Vols win the turnover margin, though, it seems virtually certain that Tennessee will win this game.

Turnover margin is always an important stat. It's important to every team and every level of the sport. But good luck finding a team that tops NC State in the this-is-THE-stat department.

Since the start of the 2020 season, the Wolfpack are 19-1 when they win the turnover margin and 2-10 when they lose it. Last season they were 8-0 when they won the turnover margin and 0-2 when they lost it.

It's not disrespectful to suggest Tennessee looks likely to beat NC State in a straight-up game. Some teams are more talented than others, and the Vols look more talented than the Wolfpack. We all know football is a game with factors that can change the scales, though, and turnover margin is one of the main chaos agents in the sport.

That turnover margin stat is something that should give NC State confidence, because NC State usually forces a lot of turnovers. No team in Power Four football intercepted more passes last season, and the Wolfpack often create chaos with coordinator Tony Gibson's 3-3-5 stack. When that stack stays intact, pressure can come from anywhere, and pressure bursts pipes. If Tennessee's space-and-pace attack breaks up that stack, though, the Vols could put up a lot of points in this game.

If Tennessee takes care of the ball, Tennessee probably win this game. If it doesn't, things won't be comfortable.

WILL TENNESSEE GET OFF THE DAGGUM FIELD DEFENSIVELY?

Tennessee finished last season 43rd nationally in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 36.6 percent of the time. That's not a terrible number on the surface. It's not great, of course, but it's not the absolute worst.

But that number doesn't tell the full story, either.

When Tennessee's defense goes off the rails on third down, it really goes off the rails. Miles off the rails. Florida converted seven of its first eight third downs last season in Gainesville, and the Vols lost. Key third-down conversions in the second half doomed the Vols to defeat at Alabama. Mizzou was 11-of-17 on third downs en route to a rout over Tennessee in Columbia. Georgia went 9-of-13 on third downs as it eased by the Vols in Knoxville.

Four losses —all four of them featuring bad third-down defense, and three of those four being directly determined by bad third-down defense.

McCall's experience, intelligence and slipperiness makes him a tough quarterback to face on third down, and players like Concepcion and Joly can give you fits in those situations. NC State also has a trio of 6-foot-2 receivers capable of coming down with tough catches on third down.

Tennessee's defensive front will usually get the Vols' defense in more advantageous than disadvantageous situations on third down. But you can't just set the table. You've got to eat. You've got to get off the field on third down. If you send pressure, you have to get there. If you back off and cover, you have to cover. You have to tackle. You have to get off the field.

If Tennessee plays well defensively on third downs, Tennessee probably wins this game. If it doesn't, the Vols would have to win via shootout.