New York Jets RB Breece Hall was coming off a torn ACL he suffered during his rookie season in 2022. As a result, fantasy football managers were cautious going into draft season in 2023. Hall was ranked as a fringe top-20 RB and was being selected as an RB2 or FLEX option in most formats.
Fast-forward to the end of 2024 and despite QB Aaron Rodgers going down with a torn Achilles on his first drive with the Jets, Hall was able to turn in a fantastic fantasy performance. Hall finished as the RB2 overall in PPR scoring behind Christian McCaffrey and goes into 2024 in that exact spot on most rankings. For now, Hall has shaken off any concerns over that torn ACL and expectations are he will be a top-5 pick in most fantasy football drafts.
But should he be?
We’re going to take a look at where Hall is being drafted and whether or not it’s a good idea to spend a top pick on the Jets’ lead back.
Fantasy football draft strategy: Jets RB Breece Hall
Should Hall be a top pick?
The easy answer is yes. But there’s a difference between saying Hall should be a top pick and whether or not you should use a top pick on him. Given what he did last season, Hall is absolutely ranked appropriately. He finished with 1,585 total yards, nine total TDs and 76 receptions, most by any running back last season. He finished 6th overall in fantasy scoring among FLEX options. And again, Hall did all this after losing his starting QB almost immediately in Week 1. The big question is how will the return of Rodgers impact Hall’s fantasy stock? Will it be positive or negative?
Will Rodgers’ return boost Hall or knock his value?
You would think it helps Hall’s value or doesn’t impact it much. But there’s a reason Hall had so many receptions last season. Outside of WR Garrett Wilson, the Jets didn’t really have any capable receivers. Allen Lazard was clearly a product of Rodgers in Green Bay. TE Tyler Conklin was the second-leading receiver with 621 yards on 61 catches. Xavier Gipson and third-round pick Malachi Corley figure to be involved in the offense for 2024. But other than that, it’s mostly the same group aside from free agent WR Mike Williams, who is coming off a torn ACL.
If all works out and the offense remains healthy, the Jets should look to throw the ball down field much more this season. Once Rodgers went down, the season was practically over, though the Jets did finish 7-10 somehow. We should expect Hall to see fewer targets and receptions this season. If Williams can stay healthy and one of Lazard, Gipson or Corley emerges as a reliable target, the Jets will have decent depth at receiver. Plus, Conklin. So while Hall should be involved in the passing game, he could see regression in those receiving categories.
As for rushing, you would think the Jets try and get Hall up to around 250-275 carries this season. He finished last season with 223 and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. If we look at the game log for Hall, we can gather a lot based on game script. As long as the Jets don’t fall apart, we can expect the team to be much more competitive. There were a few instances in which game script limited Hall’s fantasy performances.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25526819/Screenshot_2024_07_11_at_12.06.51_PM.png "Is Jets RB Breece Hall worth taking in the top-3 in your fantasy football draft? (1)")
As you can see, Week 2 was a wash. The Jets were also blown out against the Chargers in Week 8, Dolphins in Weeks 11 and 14, and Browns in Week 16. In Week 17 vs. the Patriots, Hall got an abnormal amount of carries (37). And in Week 15 vs. Washington he had an abnormal amount of targets (16) and receptions (12). Assuming the Jets are playing with a lead more often in 2024-25, it’s fair to expect Hall to get more work on the ground. It’s also fair to expect the Jets to be better in the red zone.
New York was dead last in red zone conversion percentage last season. That’s mostly because when the team got into the red zone, the offense was easy to predict without a real QB. It was either go with Hall or throw to Wilson. The Jets’ should be more of a threat in the red zone with Rodgers healthy. If that’s the case, Hall should get into the end zone more often on the ground you would think. Or even through the air. He was able to find pay dirt nine times last season and that number could increase in 2024.
Overall, Rodgers’ should have a positive impact on Hall’s fantasy value.
What about other options at the top of drafts?
In PPR, if Hall has any regression it could make sense to simply go with a top wideout with your first-round pick as opposed to RB. We’ll get into ZeroRB in a bit. There are a handful of WRs that feel safer than rolling with over Hall. That list includes CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown and even Puka Nacua. Justin Jefferson would land in this group if it weren’t for his QB situation. But even JJ could end up being a top-5 fantasy performer.
Lamb, Hill, St. Brown and Nacua all finished ahead of Hall in PPR FLEX scoring this past season. Even AJ Brown, DJ Moore and Mike Evans weren’t far off of Hall. All four of those WRs mentioned in the first sentence have pretty stable situations. Chase is the wild card of sorts.
WR Tyler Boyd left the Bengals this offseason via free agency, QB Joe Burrow should be healthy going into the regular season, and Chase is playing for a big contract. A down season for Chase could mean fewer dollars on his next deal, which isn’t what he wants. We should see Chase return to numbers similar to his rookie season, when he had nearly 1,500 receiving yards and 13 TDs. Burrow missed seven games this past season and Chase was still able to post 100 receptions for 1,216 yards and seven TDs. That was good for a WR11 finish in 2023. Chase should return to that top-10 at WR and could challenge for the top spot if all goes well.
So if you’re making the decision between a WR and Hall, don’t feel iffy going with a wide receiver. Particularly in ZeroRB draft strategies.
If you’re employing ZeroRB, you can go about it a few ways. Either fade RB until later rounds or take a bell cow early on and wait on RB. When opting for ZeroRB, it’s easy to fade Hall at the top and go with an elite WR. A big argument for using ZeroRB and fading Hall is, well, Hall himself. Last season, he was being drafted somewhere around the third to fifth rounds. You can simply wait to try and strike gold with this season’s Breece Hall.
Bijan Robinson vs. Breece Hall
There’s a case to be made for Robinson over Hall as the RB2 behind CMC. As a rookie, Robinson was in just about the worst situation possible for a RB. His coach didn’t want to employ him nearly as much as he deserved. Robinson was selected eighth overall in 2023 and had 20+ carries just once in 17 games as a rookie. The Falcons have a new head coach in Raheem Morris and new OC in Zac Robinson. Atlanta also has a real QB in Kirk Cousins. If the Falcons’ passing game takes a big step forward, which it should, Bijan Robinson could be staring down a second-year breakout, similar to Hall.
Final Thoughts
Personally, I’m going to fade Hall for the most part. Unless you’re in a standard league, ZeroRB should be employed unless you can snag McCaffrey. Robinson would be my lean over Hall given his upside, especially if you can get him in the middle of the first round. But while WR depth is better, I’d rather have an elite wideout or two on my roster for PPR and other formats like Superflex. If you’re in a shallow league with only 8 or 10 teams, you can justify going with Hall since there’s better depth at WR. But those are the only instances in which I’d look to snag him. The other instance is if he falls down a bit to the middle or later half of the first round.
